This conflict snapshot report offers insight into both offline and online conflict trends in Sudan from December 1, 2023 to January 30, 2024. It encompasses instances of violence and their repercussions on various population groups, infrastructure, essential services, as well as offline and online polarization dynamics. The data draws from 40 responses gathered by embedded observers, reflecting the perspectives of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), host communities, and service providers in regions including Gadarif, Kassala, Blue Nile, West, and South Kordofan. Additionally, public social media data from Facebook has been analyzed. The report also identifies emerging risks and opportunities, alongside providing actionable recommendations.
Key Trends – Conflict Dynamics
In South Kordofan State, the period was marked by tribal conflicts and increased hate speech among local community factions, leading to widespread insecurity. The escalating conflict between RSF and SPLM as well as the closure of roads and proliferation of banditry worsened the economic situation, leading to increased begging and child displacement. A notable incident involved members of the Hawazma tribe looting 36 cows from the Kiga tribe, which escalated into violence, members of the Kiga tribe targeted Wabour Ziraa, killing one of the passengers, wounding another, and taking control of Wabour.
In an effort to restore security and stability, the Al-Adaeyat Endowment Committee held a meeting in Dilling with the local security committee, followed by a meeting with RSF in AlGoaz locality. The outcomes included the reopening of the Al-Obeid-Dilang road, a commitment to prevent RSF entry into Dilling, void any contact with the SPLM or the army, the return of IDPs from Al-Goaz, and efforts to curb the spread of misinformation. West Kordofan experienced ongoing conflicts between the armed forces and RSF, with an RSF attack on an army camp leading to casualties, looting, and temporary displacement. A land dispute in Al-Adiya locality between members of the Hamar tribe escalated into violence, halted by native administration mediation. Furthermore, the RSF’s siege on the 22nd Infantry Division in Babanusa resulted in civilian and military casualties, underscoring the intense conflict.
In West Kordofan, the state was engulfed in persistent conflict between the armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). A notable incident involved an RSF force launching an attack on an army camp in Adiyah, resulting in the deaths of 2 army personnel and injuries to others. The assault led to the army’s withdrawal, with the RSF seizing control of the camp and looting the market, a bank, and several houses. After 4 hours, the RSF withdrew, leading to a temporary stabilization of the situation. This episode prompted a minor displacement of residents to nearby villages, who returned once conditions improved. Additionally, a tribal dispute in the Al-Adiya locality’s Donki Al-Hur area between members of the Hamar tribe led to 16 casualties and 9 injuries over a land conflict. The native administration’s intervention successfully halted the hostilities between the two parties. Furthermore, the RSF besieged the 22nd Infantry Division in Babanusa, resulting in 7 civilian deaths and 24 injuries. This confrontation continued into the third day, with ongoing casualties on both sides. Community members in Al-Fula organized a march supporting the armed forces, emphasizing unity and peace, which faced opposition from RSF supporters.
In Gadarif State, several members of the resistance committees were arrested. The state government has extended curfew hours and specifically targeting the mobility of youth, conducting raids on gatherings in cafes, and arresting those suspected of Rapid Support cooperation. Concerns rose that the conflict could spread eastward, potentially leading to the arming of civilians, igniting new conflicts and civil war.
Following the assault on Gezira State, Gedaref State saw the arming of its mobilized personnel, escalating the threat of civil war and personal vendettas. The period saw widespread arrests within state institutions, notably the Ministry of Health. Rapid Support Forces entered Gedaref via an area known as Kilo Six, where weapons were subsequently confiscated in the local market.
The conflict in Gezira State has exacerbated pressures on shelter centers and residential accommodations, further burdening them with the influx of already displaced individuals from Khartoum State and Madani. Numerous affiliates of the Rapid Support Forces within the state, both female and male, were detained, along with the ongoing abductions of resistance committee members by unidentified masked groups.
In Kassala, several tribes voiced support for the armed forces, contributing to the rise of a new faction dubbed the Eastern Liberation Movement. The spread of firearms by various local tribes has heightened tensions in the state. A curfew was enforced to regulate movement, particularly affecting those in transit, with special forces deployed from 7 o’clock to maintain order. An intensified state of alert was noted in the Hamish Koreib locality near the border, hinting at the potential establishment of new armed factions.
The report was produced in partnership with Search for Common Ground.