This round of the conflict snapshot series offers insight into both offline and online conflict trends in Sudan throughout November. It encompasses instances of violence and their repercussions on various population groups, infrastructure, essential services, as well as offline and online polarization dynamics.
The analysis draws from data gathered by embedded observers, reflecting the perspectives of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), host communities, and service providers in regions including Gadarif, Kassala, Blue Nile State, and West and South Kordofan. Additionally, the team analyzed public social media data from Facebook. The report also identifies emerging risks and opportunities, alongside providing actionable recommendations.
Key Trends – Conflict Dynamics
In Blue Nile State, operations between Sudanese armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudanese Liberation Army Movement North (SPLM-N) in South Kurmuk locality caused casualties and affected the stability of the communities in the area. In the South Samsur village, there were signs of tribal conflict between the Ingsana and the Fallata tribes, reactivating an ongoing conflict between the two groups that started two years ago, and which is expected to turn violent if no intervention takes place.
Already in September, Blue Nile data had showed that a significant number of SPLM-N soldiers belonging to the Ingsana tribe had joined the RSF, led by Abu Shotal. Other soldiers, however, joined the SAF under the leadership of Malik Aggar. Consequently, conflict escalated in Kurmuk locality and created high tensions between military forces and local communities. Although the tribal conflict between Ingsana and Fallata is historical and erupted almost two years back, it still has an impact due to Fallata’s support of the SAF and Malik Aggar.
South Kordofan State experienced intense clashes between the armed forces and SPLM-N in its capital Kadugli, which led to the massive displacement of families to another part of the town. No casualties were reported. In Dilling locality, the last week of November witnessed important instability, with members of the RSF attacking Al Tukma village 10km North of Dilling and burning it down, and the SPLM-N reacting by burning Arab villages (pro- RSF) near to Aldibabat. Local admirations from both communities (Nuba and Arabs) intervened and convinced the two sides to avoid more action and not to attack Dilling town that is considered a center for both communities.
Local administrations together with local authorities are initiating the opening of the road between Kadugli and Dilling to ease the movement of people and commodities. They also discussed opening routes for nomads’ migration to the south as it is now the dry season. The ongoing conflict has affected people’s lives as the prices of goods and commodities have increased immensely, while the state is facing a scarcity of water and basic services.
Comparing conflict dynamics in South Kordofan in September, data shows that in September the main actors for war clashes were SAF and SPLM-N and operations surrounded Kadguli town and the road between Kadugli and Dilling. In November, the war expanded, and actors shifted to become SPLM-N against SAF and RSF. Also, in September the attacks were limited around Kadugli, while in November they extended to Dilling town and surrounding areas.
In West Kordofan, the state witnessed intense fighting between Sudan military forces and RSF in Babanoussa, resulting in 3 people being killed. The clash escalated to most villages and violence against women and children increased. Al-Mairam locality witnessed conflict and clashes between the armed forces and supporters of the RSF, resulting in 11 civilian injuries. Local community leaders held meetings with RSF and their families in an attempt to protect the region and civilians from war.
Comparing conflict dynamics in West Kordofan in September, data shows that the clashes between SAF and RSF expanded and new communities in different localities were involved. In September the clashes were reported in Balila and Elfula communities, while in November the clashes extended to Babanoussa and Al-Mairam.
In November Gadarif State witnessed no violent conflict in general, but experienced large demonstrations against the local authority’s decision to evacuate schools from IDPs. The government mobilized the police, who used tear gas to force IDPs to leave their gathering points. Children, women, and the elderly were impacted and there were death cases reported among newborns. A demonstration was also held against the Bank of Khartoum for a new procedure that charges additional fees for customers for all banking services. Customers protested to voice their refusal of this decision to bank management.
In Kassala, there were also no serious conflicts reported within this period. However, the state experienced outbreaks of infectious diseases such as dengue fever, malaria, and cholera, as well as the deterioration of healthcare services. There are also signs of emerging tribal disputes between Hadandawa and the Benaamer and Habab. This usually happens when the government announces new structures for state governance, because in this region of Sudan tribes are clan-based and believe they should be consulted when any decision on local government is appointed.
Comparing conflict dynamics in Gadarif and Kassala States this month with September, findings show that while there were no significant signs of direct clashes between SAF and RSF, the current clashes in the country have negatively affected services and infrastructures in both States.
The report was produced in partnership with Search for Common Ground.